Primary results show how Orange County differs from the rest of California

We’re still redder, our races are tighter and we’re tougher on incumbents.

With votes from California’s March 3 primary still being counted, results so far suggest Orange County voters differed in some key ways from voters in other parts of the state.

That said, a lot of votes still need counting.

On Friday, officials said more than 170,000 ballots remain uncounted in Orange County, while news reports in Los Angeles County pegged that area’s uncounted pile at closer to 800,000 ballots.

In Orange County, the post-election vote count has yet to flip any results from election night, but a few contests are getting tighter and remain too close to call.

It’s unclear, for example, if 72nd District Assemblyman Tyler Diep, R-Westminster, will hold on to second place so he can face GOP challenger Janet Nguyen in the November general election. A Democrat challenger in that race, Diedre Nguyen, finished election night just behind Diep and has seen her vote totals grow at a slightly faster clip than Diep’s.

It’s also unclear which of two challengers will advance in the 37th Senate District and the Board of Supervisors First District race.

But even as votes are being tabulated, experts say it’s not too early to look at the numbers and see how Orange County compares with the rest of California.

We’re tougher on incumbents

Statewide, only seven incumbents are trailing so far in the primary — a fairly forgiving number given that there are 153 House, State Senate and Assembly seats in California.

But three of those trailing incumbents are in Orange County.

In addition to Diep — who’s own party ditched him over votes he’d cast that were deemed too union friendly by GOP officials — local incumbents who didn’t win include Rep. Gil Cisneros, D-Yorba Linda, and Assemblyman Bill Brough, R-Dana Point.

Though Cisneros is gaining ground as ballots are counted — a trend for most Democrats, as election day and late mail-in voters tend to favor their party — he’s still trailing Republican Young Kim in their battle to represent the 39th congressional district. Regardless of the final numbers, both names will be on the November ballot.

Brough, a previous three-time winner in the 73rd Assembly District who is facing allegations of sexual assault and an investigation into campaign financial reporting, is in fourth place and not gaining ground.

Fred Smoller, political science professor at Chapman University, said it was risky for the Orange County Republican Central Committee, with Fred Whitaker at the helm, to back GOP challengers over Diep and Brough. Some decried the Diep move as a GOP purity test. But at least in the case of Brough, Smoller argued it was a risk that demonstrated integrity.

“The Republicans are in the minority,” he noted. “They have to hold on to every seat they can.”

But it looks as though the risk is paying off, Smoller noted, with Brough the only incumbent statewide who’s apparently not going on to November and with Diep narrowly hanging onto his No. 2 slot.

Our races are closer

Orange County’s state and federal races are tighter than statewide averages. Though the county has 10% of all contests, it currently accounts for 15% of all the contests, statewide, that are deemed “close” by the Secretary of State.

The close nature of county politics shows up in several categories.

In House races, for example, leaders in Orange County are 8.9% closer to their runner-up than leaders across the state.

And while leaders in contested Assembly races statewide average 59% of the vote, the leaders in Orange County Assembly races got an average vote share of 48.9%.

What’s more, while Assembly leaders, statewide, were 28.2 points over their next closest opponent, the average lead in Orange County was just 16.9 percentage points.

A few other data points also hint at the neck and neck politics of Orange County:

The smallest vote share for any leading candidate in California (when contests without incumbents are out of the mix) is the 27.6% share held by Republican Laurie Davies in the AD-73 race.

And the smallest lead for a State Senate race with an incumbent is the 16.3 percentage point lead Sen. Ling Ling Chang holds over Josh Newman in the 29th District contest.

We’re still redder than average for California

There are 35 Republicans leading state and federal races across California, and seven of them are in Orange County. That means while Republicans hold leads in 23% of all seats, statewide, that’s true of 44% of the seats in Orange County.

There are also only three races statewide where it looks like voters will send two Republicans to November. One of those GOP-vs.GOP battles will be in Orange County, AD-72.

“The Republican Party is not dead” in Orange County, Smoller said.

“The claim that we’re a blue county is overstated,” he added. “We’re a purple county.”

The red lean is most apparent in the State Senate, where Orange County accounts for half of all Republicans leading in senate races statewide.

Conversely, the county’s blue lean is still most apparent in the House, where six out of seven races are now being led by a Democrat.

Justin Levitt, a political science professor at Cal State Long Beach, said results in some down ballot races could suggest a swing back to the right in November.

“In terms of surprises, it’s interesting to see the school bond measures and Prop 13 failing by such a large margin, and County Measure A winning, despite the energy and turnout advantages on the Democratic side,” Levitt said.

“I think this suggests that while O.C. voters supported Democratic candidates in 2018, it’s not clear that they will win reelection in November. It may be that the county votes slightly more Democratic, it’s doesn’t mean support for left-leaning positions.”

In particular, Smoller said the results suggest Reps. Harley Rouda, D-Laguna Beach, and Cisneros will likely have tough races on their hands against GOP challengers in November.

Adam Probolsky, veteran pollster and president of Newport Beach-based Probolsky Research, said he sees the school bond rejection as a reflection of a growing distrust in government at all levels.

“Without trust, voters will not hand over their hard earned money, even for a cause that helps our kids and ostensibly keeps property values high,” he said.

“It is not the school boards’ fault. President Trump has promoted the wholesale distrust in government and institutions and, it has had disastrous impacts down to the most of local organizations.”

Courtesy of The OC Register

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